In The Hat

Preakness Analysis & Picks

Wet or fast track, I think the Preakness will be run similarly to the Kentucky Derby. I look for Lion Heart to rocket out of post position #1 and go straight for the lead. Expect Smarty Jones, Eddington & Rock Hard Ten to be stalking him with Imperialism further back.

I feel like Eddington is just not quite good enough to win in this spot. He wasn't flattered by the performances of Master David & Tapit (the two colts who beat him in the Wood Memorial) in the Kentucky Derby.

I like Kristin Mulhall and I think it's great that she's already so successful as a trainer at 21, but I also question whether Imperialism is ready to run with the big boys. He's a very nice horse and the race could set up for him, but I see him running his usual strong race but still being behind some others.

That brings it down to (in my mind) Lion Heart, Smarty Jones & Rock Hard Ten. I was going to eliminate Lion Heart because I had a nagging feeling that he'd lose something off his effort in the Derby, but all reports are that he looks spectacular. But here's the thing, Lion Heart has been a valiant loser all spring. He has yet to prove he can be a valiant winner. I'm going to take a stand against him here, but god bless him if he pulls this one out.

So, the Derby winner vs. the 17-hand black beauty it is. I think both horses will get nice stalking trips and it could come down to who has the better finishing kick. As much as a I love Rock Hard Ten, I don't think he's there yet. By the end of the year I expect him to dust some of these horses, but not tomorrow. So, I'm going with the Derby winner. Smarty Jones in the Preakness and we'll see what happens at Belmont.